How much does a revenue drop change an STR cap rate?
More than most buyers expect, because costs do not fall with revenue. On the sample, a 10% drop in gross moves the cap rate from 7.50% to 6.36%.
Most of an STR's costs are fixed or tied to bookings rather than to price. Lose 10% of gross and NOI falls by far more than 10%. On the sample it falls about 15%, from $30,000 to $25,437.
That makes the stress table more useful than the headline. If the deal still meets your target in the gross -10% row, it has room for a soft year.
- Gross as entered7.50% cap rate
- Gross -10%6.36%
- Gross -20%5.22%
- Gross -10% and costs +10%5.97%